Cake Report: How Did Investing Magazine Picks Fair in 2008?

author Posted by: Steve Carpenter on date Dec 29th, 2008 | filed Filed under: Analytics and Metrics, Industry, Investing

For individual investors, each December brings information overload in the form of double issue investing magazines.  With thoughtful advice from top investing gurus, these publications are supposed to help us navigate the markets for the coming year so we can do better.  However, exclamation points and confusion abound.

Cake Guru

Regardless of your feeling toward these publications, what is most confusing is the amount of information- oftentimes conflicting- through which we are forced to wade to try and improve our investments.  What is  fantastic about them, however, is that they can be analyzed to see how their respective picks have fared.  I wrote a post a year ago about research that showed that stocks and mutual funds favorably covered in investing magazines underperform rather than outperform markets.

So how did the mainstream investing magazine gurus do in 2008?  Um, not great.

I looked at the top stock, mutual fund and ETF picks from Forbes, Business Week, Smart Money, Fortune and Kiplinger’s for both 2007 and 2008 and compared a “portfolio” of their selections against the markets as well as investors on Cake.  I assume an investor purchased an equal weighting of the best picks and then held them the entire year.  As a benchmark, I used last Friday’s close price and show a loss of -40.6% for the S&P, -35.8 for Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ down 42.3% for 2008.

Forbes

Forbes issued not one but two sets of picks last year- Forbes Guru Picks 2008 and Forbes Recession Beaters- touted as stocks and funds their best performing gurus are purchasing.  The Guru Picks “portfolio” returned -46.46, lagging all three benchmarks, while the Recession Beater did better with a -38.20% return, but still trailed the Dow Jones.

Here are the details:

Forbes Guru Picks 2008

Position    Symbol     Return
Aflac    AFL     (32.16)
QuickLogic    QUIK     (82.44)
Penn West Energy Trust    PWE     (58.27)
First Solar     FSLR     (49.53)
KBW Insurance     KIE     (51.71)
Ultra QQQ ProShares    QLD     (74.86)
Fidelity China Region    FHKCX     (46.87)
Transocean    RIG     (67.83)
MasterCard    MA     (34.72)
iShares S&P Global Telecommunications    IXP     (36.68)
Sigma-Aldrich     SIAL     (26.92)
Walgreen    WAG     (38.31)
PowerShares Lux Nanotech Portfolio     PXN     (54.37)
McDonalds    MCD     2.02
Philippine Long Distance Telecom    PHI     (39.95)
Ambac Financial Group     ABK     (95.54)
MBIA    MBI     (78.58)
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund     DBA     (24.04)
Brookfield Asset Management     BAM     (61.96)
Spectra N    SPECX     (45.06)
eLong    LONG     (13.75)
PepsiCo    PEP     (29.34)
Visteon    VC     (92.94)
Omrix Biopharmaceuticals    OMRI     (28.09)
MasterCard    MA     (34.56)
Comverse Technologies    CMVT     (67.25)
Qualcomm    QCOM     (14.00)
Rydex Sector Rotation    RYSRX     (41.70)
Emerson Electric    EMR     (40.42)
Fidelity New Markets Income    FNMIX     (23.93)
Priceline.com    PCLN     (40.97)
New Ireland Fund    IRL     (77.29)
CSCO    CSCO     (41.56)
Intel    INTC     (47.26)
Berkshire B    BRK.B     (35.39)
Intuitive Surgical    ISRG     (63.10)
Kinross Gold    KGC     (2.45)
Ambac Financial Group    ABK     (95.42)
Abbot Laboratories    ABT     (7.93)
Market Vectors Nuclear Energy    NLR     (48.83)
Johnson & Johnson    JNJ     (13.78)
HealthShares Diagnostic    HHD     (38.98)
ING Global Real Estate    IGLAX     (43.49)
Elan    ELN     (74.34)
Manpower    MAN     (44.97)
Credicorp    BAP     (39.00)
Motorola    MOT     (75.06)
O2 Micro International    OIIM     (84.14)
StreetTracks Gold Shares    GLD     4.46
WisdomTree DEFA     DWM     (46.48)
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce    RIO     (66.36)
Harmonic    HILT     (50.00)

Guru Picks 2008 Return         (46.46)

Forbes Recession Beaters

Aflac    AFL     (32.16)
Abbott Labs    ABT     (7.93)
Berkshire B    BRK.B     (35.39)
Intuitive Surgical    ISRG     (63.10)
KBW Insurance     KIE     (51.71)
Walgreens    WAG     (38.31)
Johnson & Johnson    JNJ     (13.78)
HealthShares Diagnostic    HHD     (38.98)
Pepsi    PEP     (29.34)
Rydex Sector Rotation    RYSRX     (41.70)
Transocean    RIG     (67.83)

Recession Beater Return         (38.20)