Cake Report: How Did Investing Magazine Picks Fair in 2008?
Posted by: Steve Carpenter on
Dec 29th, 2008 |
Filed under: Analytics and Metrics, Industry, Investing
For individual investors, each December brings information overload in the form of double issue investing magazines. With thoughtful advice from top investing gurus, these publications are supposed to help us navigate the markets for the coming year so we can do better. However, exclamation points and confusion abound.
Regardless of your feeling toward these publications, what is most confusing is the amount of information- oftentimes conflicting- through which we are forced to wade to try and improve our investments. What is fantastic about them, however, is that they can be analyzed to see how their respective picks have fared. I wrote a post a year ago about research that showed that stocks and mutual funds favorably covered in investing magazines underperform rather than outperform markets.
So how did the mainstream investing magazine gurus do in 2008? Um, not great.
I looked at the top stock, mutual fund and ETF picks from Forbes, Business Week, Smart Money, Fortune and Kiplinger’s for both 2007 and 2008 and compared a “portfolio” of their selections against the markets as well as investors on Cake. I assume an investor purchased an equal weighting of the best picks and then held them the entire year. As a benchmark, I used last Friday’s close price and show a loss of -40.6% for the S&P, -35.8 for Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ down 42.3% for 2008.
Forbes
Forbes issued not one but two sets of picks last year- Forbes Guru Picks 2008 and Forbes Recession Beaters- touted as stocks and funds their best performing gurus are purchasing. The Guru Picks “portfolio” returned -46.46, lagging all three benchmarks, while the Recession Beater did better with a -38.20% return, but still trailed the Dow Jones.
Here are the details:
Forbes Guru Picks 2008
Position Symbol Return
Aflac AFL (32.16)
QuickLogic QUIK (82.44)
Penn West Energy Trust PWE (58.27)
First Solar FSLR (49.53)
KBW Insurance KIE (51.71)
Ultra QQQ ProShares QLD (74.86)
Fidelity China Region FHKCX (46.87)
Transocean RIG (67.83)
MasterCard MA (34.72)
iShares S&P Global Telecommunications IXP (36.68)
Sigma-Aldrich SIAL (26.92)
Walgreen WAG (38.31)
PowerShares Lux Nanotech Portfolio PXN (54.37)
McDonalds MCD 2.02
Philippine Long Distance Telecom PHI (39.95)
Ambac Financial Group ABK (95.54)
MBIA MBI (78.58)
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund DBA (24.04)
Brookfield Asset Management BAM (61.96)
Spectra N SPECX (45.06)
eLong LONG (13.75)
PepsiCo PEP (29.34)
Visteon VC (92.94)
Omrix Biopharmaceuticals OMRI (28.09)
MasterCard MA (34.56)
Comverse Technologies CMVT (67.25)
Qualcomm QCOM (14.00)
Rydex Sector Rotation RYSRX (41.70)
Emerson Electric EMR (40.42)
Fidelity New Markets Income FNMIX (23.93)
Priceline.com PCLN (40.97)
New Ireland Fund IRL (77.29)
CSCO CSCO (41.56)
Intel INTC (47.26)
Berkshire B BRK.B (35.39)
Intuitive Surgical ISRG (63.10)
Kinross Gold KGC (2.45)
Ambac Financial Group ABK (95.42)
Abbot Laboratories ABT (7.93)
Market Vectors Nuclear Energy NLR (48.83)
Johnson & Johnson JNJ (13.78)
HealthShares Diagnostic HHD (38.98)
ING Global Real Estate IGLAX (43.49)
Elan ELN (74.34)
Manpower MAN (44.97)
Credicorp BAP (39.00)
Motorola MOT (75.06)
O2 Micro International OIIM (84.14)
StreetTracks Gold Shares GLD 4.46
WisdomTree DEFA DWM (46.48)
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO (66.36)
Harmonic HILT (50.00)
Guru Picks 2008 Return (46.46)
Forbes Recession Beaters
Aflac AFL (32.16)
Abbott Labs ABT (7.93)
Berkshire B BRK.B (35.39)
Intuitive Surgical ISRG (63.10)
KBW Insurance KIE (51.71)
Walgreens WAG (38.31)
Johnson & Johnson JNJ (13.78)
HealthShares Diagnostic HHD (38.98)
Pepsi PEP (29.34)
Rydex Sector Rotation RYSRX (41.70)
Transocean RIG (67.83)
Recession Beater Return (38.20)






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